Thursday, October 7, 2010

Poker and Day Trading

So, these two things are oddly enough very closely related. I have, in the past, attempted to profit from day trading (like everyone else and their dog I'm sure). I didn't lose my shirt, but I realized I had two huge obstacles. First was my bankroll was far too small. A minimum of 50k is required, and unless you're very good or willing to seriously leverage yourself it's more like 100k.

The second problem is everyone needs some sort of an edge or you are doomed, no matter your endeavor. I tried many avenues, research, tips, study, systems and educated myself but I realized that to attain an edge would take years. I was not looking to gamble, at least not without the odds in my favour. I was looking for a skill i could build into a consistent form of income. So upon realizing this I quickly switched gears and attempted swing trading. This was more succesful, and far less risky but my savings is now all locked away pending news on a certain company, and has been for quite some time. While I am comfortable with the future outlook of this company, I am annoyed that my money is stuck.

Now the reason I am writing about this is a friend I had not spoken to in a very long time messaged me that he had been laid off, and was considering trying day trading to replace his lost income. I promptly informed him that this was insane and to turn back, lest he (or what money he had) perish.

However, amusingly enough, I am considering attempting something similar with online poker. I know from my tradinng experience the two are very similar. Bets based on pot odds are essentially your risk/reward numbers in day trading, and it's all about iron nerves, knowing the math, and being able to read the action. A very similar skillset. What appeals to me however, is poker is the same idea, but on a micro level. This is quite unlike stock trading where the skillset is on a very "macro" level, that is everything from weather to world economics to unemployment to christmas holiday season can affect a stock price.

I also am intrigued by the options presented to me. Unlike stock trading, you can start very small. The lowest option I seen was a $1.40 no-limit tournament, with first prize being aprox. 20 dollars with 18 players. Taking into account that the initial deposit is doubled, this is a $0.70 buy in for a 1/18 shot at 24 dollars. I have yet to play an online game for real money, as I am a very disciplined look before you leap type. I hate being a statistic, however I really want to give it a go. I hate reading and learning before doing the fun stuff.

Which is where I am now, I'm reading various e-books in an attempt to learn how to calculate the various odds properly and quickly. I doubt I will end up succeeding in this, it is basically my last attempt at "easy" (or at least unorthodox) employment before I gear up my part-time job into more of a full-time career. I am hoping this goes well, I have enjoyed poker since I was about 10 when we used to play 7 card stud with pennies. I have always been better than most of the people I played with, but have always played with gut feelings and fuzzy odds based on common sense, which I am quickly finding out was somewhat ill-informed.

So I know nobody reads this, but hey if anyone does and can reccommend some good books on EV, pot odds and/or methods for quickly calculating them I would appreciate it.


1 comment:

  1. I have very often considered looking into day trading. This was some good insight.